SPC MD 752



MD 0752 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA

MD 0752 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0752
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Areas affected...Much of the Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 281803Z - 282000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional strong storms expected through the afternoon
across much of the Florida Peninsula. Isolated damaging winds are
possible.

DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have started to form in a very
unstable air mass across the northern Florida Peninsula. Additional
storm coverage is expected southward along the Peninsula throughout
the day as destabilization increases. Shear is extremely weak given
less than 10 knots of flow below 10km. While this is not favorable
for organized storms, this will support significant water-loading
and the potential for wet microbursts as storm cores collapse.
Additionally, mid-level lapse rates are steeper than normal across
the region (near 7 C/km per RAP forecast soundings). This will also
support stronger mid-level updraft accelerations leading to stronger
updraft/downdraft pairs.

A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely given the unorganized nature
of the convection.

..Bentley/Hart.. 05/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28218277 28878275 29438266 29738215 29728144 29448100
            28718074 28278058 27378028 26998029 26388057 26128110
            26198154 26968227 27548260 28218277 

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