SPC MD 754



MD 0754 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR GALVESTON ISLAND AND ADJACENT UPPER TEXAS COAST VICINITY

MD 0754 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Areas affected...Galveston Island and adjacent upper Texas coast
vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 282001Z - 282200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorm development, including
supercells, may continue across upper Texas coastal areas
near/southwest of Houston through 4-5 PM.

DISCUSSION...Sustained supercell development, which initiated a
couple of hours ago along the sea-breeze inland of Galveston Bay,
has maintained considerable intensity and organization, including a
strong low-level mesocyclone, while propagating southward across
Galveston Bay.  This cell has probably been enhanced by increasing
deep-layer shear associated with the approach of a digging 35-40 kt
northwesterly 500 mb jet.  

Low-level flow and shear are weak, but winds veer with height, and
inflow of seasonably moist boundary layer air with large CAPE
(2000-4000+ J/kg) has maintained intense updrafts.  Although some
recent weakening of low-level rotation has been evident, there
probably is some potential for re-intensification as the cell
approaches Galveston between now and 20-21Z.  Latest objective
analysis, however, suggests that strongest low-level convergence
remains focused across coastal areas north of Galveston Island,
near/southwest of Texas City, where intense new convective
development may be underway.  This may become the more prominent
convection, and could still pose a localized risk for hail, strong
wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.

..Kerr/Hart.. 05/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...

LAT...LON   29439524 29589487 29339456 29099494 29179522 29439524 

Read more



Source link

Editor
  • Editor
  • Website is owned by STL.News, LLC, but hosted, designed and maintained by WebTech Group (WTG). WTG is a St. Louis based web designed firm offering digital marketing services and news sites. We created RSSWX.News to help the major search engines easily find news direct from the source, which is the National Weather Service.