SPC MD 756



MD 0756 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX

MD 0756 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0756
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020

Areas affected...Portions of deep south TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 290624Z - 290900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A line of storms moving slowly eastward may be capable of
producing isolated strong/gusty winds for the next few hours. Watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A slow-moving MCS along/just west of the Rio Grande at
0620Z has recently acquired a more eastward movement towards deep
south TX, where a relative minimum in convective inhibition may be
present per mesoanalysis estimates. There is some evidence of
organization with this convection from recent KBRO radar imagery,
with the northern portion of the line perhaps showing a developing
MCV. The airmass across deep south TX remains rather unstable, with
mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates
supporting MUCAPE up to 3000-3500 J/kg. Regardless, both
low/mid-level flow remain very weak across this region, which should
limit the overall intensity of the MCS. Evidence of outflow from
these storms surging several miles ahead of the higher reflectivity
has recently been noted from KBRO. Still, isolated strong/gusty
outflow winds capable of producing occasional damage cannot be ruled
out over the next few hours given the large reservoir of instability
present. Watch issuance will probably not be needed owing to
negligible shear and related slow system movement.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 05/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   26979944 27319955 27629943 27599922 27039862 26729808
            26579756 26199747 25909761 26029825 26249876 26399914
            26719928 26979944 

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