SPC MD 781



MD 0781 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEAST SD…CENTRAL MN

MD 0781 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0781
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Areas affected...Far Northeast SD...Central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 021827Z - 022000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail will continue
across central MN for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Storm cluster that was decaying/weakening as it moved
into central MN early this morning has recently shown a
strengthening trend as new storms develop along its southwestern
flank. This re-strengthening may be a result of increasingly buoyant
air being advected northward over the cold front into the vicinity
of the storm cluster. Given the overall progression of this cluster,
the potential for storms in far northeast SD remains low, with the
higher probability for thunderstorms across west-central into
southwest MN. Several storms within the cluster have shown mid-level
rotation, although persistence of this rotation has been somewhat
transient. 

Destabilizing air mass downstream suggests that thunderstorms will
likely persist across west-central/central MN for at least the next
hour or two. Vertical shear will remain modest (i.e. 0-6 km bulk
shear around 30 kt) but still strong enough when coupled with the
steep mid-level lapse rates (9 deg C per km on the 18Z MPX sounding)
to support occasional updraft rotation with an attendant threat for
isolated hail.

..Mosier/Grams.. 06/02/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44719748 45489717 46259481 46209338 45409297 44699500
            44349690 44719748 

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