SPC MD 790



MD 0790 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY…NORTHWESTERN PA…AND FAR NORTHEASTERN OH

MD 0790 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0790
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0412 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Areas affected...Portions of western NY...northwestern PA...and far
northeastern OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 030912Z - 031115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms crossing Lake Erie may pose an isolated hail/wind
risk for the next couple of hours. Still, watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A compact mid-level jet over Lower MI early this
morning has likely been convectively enhanced by prior storms, with
recent VWPs from KDTX showing 50-60+ kt of westerly flow roughly in
the 2-6 km layer. Once storms moving quickly eastward over Lake Erie
and southern Ontario reach western NY and northwestern PA, they may
encounter a marginally supportive thermodynamic environment. 09Z
surface observations generally indicate temperatures remain in the
mid 60s to low 70s, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Another storm is developing over northeastern OH along the lake
shore as of 09Z. Strong shear associated with the mid-level jet
should support storm organization, with both isolated hail and
strong/gusty winds possible. The factors that may limit a greater
severe risk in the short term include poor low-level lapse rates
owing to a modest inversion, and weak instability with MLCAPE
generally around 500-1000 J/kg. At this point, the expectation for
fairly isolated storm coverage and the marginal thermodynamics
suggest a watch will probably not be needed in the next couple of
hours.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   42328042 42597954 42847896 43077905 43317907 43367891
            43417830 43177777 42567775 42017782 41657820 41497880
            41487989 41498120 41708138 42208124 42328042 

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