SPC MD 888



MD 0888 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NE…EASTERN SD AND WEST-CENTRAL MN

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Mesoscale Discussion 0888
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2020

Areas affected...portions of central NE...eastern SD and
west-central MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272...

Valid 090546Z - 090715Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272 expires at 07z. Local
extensions and/or a new watch may be needed for portions of central
NE into far eastern SD. Additionally, a new watch may be needed for
portions of west-central/northern MN depending on short-term trends.

DISCUSSION...Severe storms continue along a line from western NE
into north-central NE then northward across eastern SD and from
west-central MN into northern MN. These storms are mostly occurring
along a cold front, though some are likely elevated and just to the
cool side of the front. Nevertheless, shear profiles remain strong
and favorable for supercells. Additionally, low to mid 60s dewpoints
and modest midlevel lapse rates will continue to foster 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE. Thus, strong to severe thunderstorms could continue for
a few more hours, lasting beyond the 07z watch expiration time. Hail
and 50+ kt gusts will continue to be the main concern with this
activity.

Further northeast across MN, radar trends have shown increasing
thunderstorm activity over the last hour or so near/just ahead of
the cold front. MRMS MESH has indicated potential for 1.5-2.5 inch
hail for the last 30 minutes. Additional storms have not been as
intense, but some potential will exist for hail and locally strong
gusts.

..Leitman.. 06/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...
UNR...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   46479460 41829848 40279991 40170071 40180215 40740225
            41760222 42970103 43859937 44819821 46009683 46639612
            47059557 47049509 46909469 46479460 

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