SPC MD 891



MD 0891 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND VICINITY

MD 0891 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0891
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0620 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2020

Areas affected...northern Illinois/Indiana and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 092320Z - 100115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A brief, weak tornado or two are possible across northern
Illinois/Indiana and possibly into far southwest Michigan. While the
severe threat is likely isolated, trends will be monitored for a
possible tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...Tropical Depression Cristobal is continuing to move
northward across the Midwest with a deep, well defined surface low
in eastern Iowa/northwest Illinois. Breaks in the clouds across
portions of central/northern Illinois/Indiana has led to some
stronger instability with satellite/radar imagery showing a slight
uptick in convection recently. Low-level shear remains strong with
larger hodographs east of the surface low. Transient weak rotation
has been observed with a few convective cells, but convection is
remaining somewhat weak, with relatively narrow updrafts. However,
given the presence of low-level helicity and potential convective
intensification associated with increasing destabilization, a couple
of brief, weak tornadoes and convectively-aided strong wind gusts
are possible across the area this evening.

..Nauslar/Hart.. 06/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41398920 41838917 42208906 42518874 42488781 42288688
            42048635 41448587 41068573 40878571 40388610 40218663
            40218834 40708902 41398920 

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