SPC MD 895



MD 0895 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN IN…SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN LOWER MI

MD 0895 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0895
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

Areas affected...northern IN...southwest and western Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 101344Z - 101515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will gradually intensify this morning and likely
require a severe thunderstorm watch issuance by 11am-12pm EDT.  Max
thunderstorm gust potential will initially range 45-60 mph but
strengthen into the 50-70 mph range towards midday as both the
magnitude/coverage of damaging gusts increases.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a developing band of storms from
east-central IL to the Chicago south side with another cluster of
storms developing over northwest IN expected to move into southwest
Lower MI during the next 1-2 hours.  Visible-satellite imagery shows
cloud streets across northern IN into southern Lower MI, indicative
of a very moist boundary layer.  Specifically regarding moisture,
the 6am EDT Detroit, MI observed sounding showed a 16.3 g/kg lowest
100mb mean mixing ratio, a climatological maximum through June 15th
during the period of record (since 1949).  

Pockets of strong heating per cloud breaks will contribute to a
moderately unstable airmass by mid-late morning with little to any
remaining convective inhibition as temperatures warm into the
low-mid 80s.  KIWX and KGRR show 30-40 kt in the 1-2 km AGL layer
with 50 kt around 3km AGL at KGRR.  As the mid-level migratory
shortwave trough approaches the Great Lakes from MO today,
additional storm development/strengthening is expected.  As a
result, damaging gusts will become more common as bands of storms
intensify through the late morning and into the early afternoon.  A
tornado or two cannot be ruled out given the moist boundary layer
and adequate speed shear in the lowest 1-2 km, but the general
unidirectional southerly wind profile will tend to favor damaging
gusts as the primary severe hazard.

..Smith/Thompson.. 06/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   41798743 43518643 43958519 43588442 42868424 41178513
            40788600 40858719 41798743 

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