SPC MD 899



MD 0899 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY

MD 0899 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0899
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

Areas affected...western and central Ohio into northern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 101758Z - 101930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch downstream of WW275 will
likely be issued within the next hour. Severe thunderstorms capable
of damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and a tornado or two
will be likely through this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms over central Indiana has
produced several reports of damaging winds over the last few hours.
These storms are ongoing in a very moist environment (surface
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F) ahead of a pressure trough/wind
shift emanating from a 983 mb cyclone over southern Ontario.
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and 35-45 kt of effective shear as sampled
by SPC mesoanalysis will support robust organized updrafts in the
form of small bowing segments and supercells. Damaging winds will
primarily be the main threat with the increase in storm coverage and
interactions favoring strong downdrafts. However, the magnitude of
instability/buoyancy will support some risk for isolated large hail
with the strongest updrafts. Hodographs are expected to be
relatively long but low-level flow is expected veer with time
supporting the threat for one or two tornadoes given 0-1 km shear of
15-20 kt. A new Severe thunderstorm Watch will be needed within the
next hour.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   38588362 38398438 38378477 38618517 39278531 40988426
            41588381 41648364 41568290 41628214 41738178 41818152
            41758140 39808209 39468230 38828298 38588362 

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