SPC MD 900


MD 0900 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0900
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

Areas affected...southeast lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...276...

Valid 101903Z - 102030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274, 276

SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms have coalesced into a loosely
organized squall line across portions of northeast Indiana and
southeast Lower Michigan. A focused corridor for damaging wind gusts
may develop as storms intensify from Kalamazoo, east-northeast
toward Detroit.

DISCUSSION...A line of quasi discrete supercells have begun merging
into a more linear organization across portions of northeast Indiana
and southern half of Lower Michigan over the last hour. Several
reports of wind damage have been received as outflow has become more
coherent and better organized. The diagonal NE/SW orientation of the
convective line lies along a corridor of backed mid and upper-level
flow observed from the 18z Detroit special sounding. The orientation
of the upper-level flow will likely support continued downdraft
development and outflow aggregations given seeding from anvil
precipitation being advected over downstream convection across
portions of far northeast Indiana into southeast Lower Michigan. The
main threat with storms will be damaging winds given 1200-1400 J/kg
of DCAPE and strong mid-level flow of 50 to 60 kt. Large hail will
be possible given MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg supporting robust deep
updrafts. However, the risk appears limited due to weaker lapse
rates of 6 to 7 C/km and the predominately linear storm mode. The
most favored corridor for severe wind will be with the stronger
cells merging into southern Michigan toward Detroit. A few
significant wind gusts will be possible with any stronger bowing
structures that can develop.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   42648519 43208407 43788343 43908295 43668264 42728254
            42418300 41768352 41818523 42048528 42548522 42648519 

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