SPC MD 910


MD 0910 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0910
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020

Areas affected...northern new Mexico...western/central
Colorado...and southern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 131854Z - 132100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Convection continues to develop mainly near higher terrain
in the discussion area.  Damaging wind gusts and large hail are
possible with the strongest convection.

DISCUSSION...Recent trends in observations indicate deepening
convection with lightning across much of western/central Colorado
and northwestern New Mexico currently.  These storms are developing
in an environment characterized by moderate deep shear and
seasonably strong kinematic fields, with 20-25 knots of peak
boundary layer in Colorado, weakening with southward extent.  Steep
tropospheric lapse rates are also fostering around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE
while also favoring downbursts near the strongest convection.  KGUC
observed thunderstorm wind gusts near 36 knots within the past hour
as well.

The main limiting factor for a more robust severe threat is modest
forcing for ascent.  Weak/diffuse mid-level shortwaves are
traversing the region currently, though most of the severe risk is
expected to be isolated.  Models hint at low potential for upscale
growth into loosely organized linear segments once storms exit the
higher terrain later this afternoon.  The overall scenario seems to
support an isolated severe threat that would preclude a WW issuance,
although trends will continue to be monitored.

..Cook/Goss.. 06/13/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   34140897 35680915 38610903 40040881 40720841 41920728
            42150602 42260508 41690430 40010413 37900447 36390540
            35030651 34230761 33770825 34140897 

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