SPC MD 922


MD 0922 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0922
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

Areas affected...Western and Central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 162355Z - 170230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to develop across
parts of western and central North Dakota over the next couple of
hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the primary
threats. Weather watch issuance will need to be considered as cells
develop and increase in coverage.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 999 mb low in
southwest North Dakota. A cold front is present from just to the
west of the surface low extending southwestward into northeast
Wyoming. Convection initiated in far southwest North Dakota near the
front over the last hour but has failed to become established. A
moist airmass exists to the east of the front across much of North
Dakota where surface dewpoints are as high as the lower to mid 60s F
in the southern part of the state. The convection is also located
along a band of large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave
trough across the northern High Plains, evident on water vapor
imagery.  As the cap weakens a bit more and large-scale ascent
spreads across west-central North Dakota, thunderstorm development
will be likely and cells should increase in coverage. The
thermodynamic environment is currently moderately unstable in
west-central North Dakota with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 1500 to
3000 J/kg range. In addition, the Bismarck WSR-88D VWP has 35 kt of
0-6 km shear with veering winds with height in the lowest 2 km. The
instability and wind shear profiles will be favorable for strong to
severe thunderstorm development this evening and supercells will be
possible. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the primary

At this time, some uncertainty exists concerning the timing of
thunderstorm development across the northern Plains. The current
thinking is that convection will continue to percolate in
southwestern North Dakota for another hour or so. Then, convection
should become vigorous enough for thunderstorm development, mainly
after 0130Z. Thunderstorms are forecast to expand northward across
west-central North Dakota after that and should obtain an isolated
severe threat.

..Broyles/Grams.. 06/16/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   48880190 48050270 47380306 46070323 45910212 46200129
            47170063 48660004 49000102 48880190 

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