SPC MD 926



MD 0926 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO

MD 0926 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0926
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Areas affected...portions of west Texas and far eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 171952Z - 172045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convection is expected to gradually increase in coverage
this afternoon and spread eastward across the discussion area
through the evening.  A few instances of small hail and gusty winds
are expected.  A WW issuance is not currently expected, though
convective trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed in higher terrain in
southwest Texas over the past couple of hours, with expanding areas
of towering cumulus across southeastern New Mexico and near the
NM/TX border area.  Continued surface heating was contributing to
steep low- and mid-level lapse rates where cumulus has developed,
and latest point forecast soundings indicate that layers of
inhibition have nearly been completely removed.  Furthermore, subtle
surface convergence amongst weak low-level wind fields, in tandem
with weak to moderate buoyancy, was likely supporting these recently
outlined convective trends.  

Over time, models and observations both continue to suggest that
convection will deepen and expand from west to east through the
evening.  Though weak shear will likely contribute to loosely
organized convection, enough coverage of convection will exist to
pose a potential for upscale growth into one or two convective
complexes that will move eastward - especially across the Texas
South Plains and vicinity.  Damaging wind gusts are the most likely
threat with this activity, though a few instances of hail cannot be
ruled out.  It is uncertain whether this threat will become
widespread enough to necessitate a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance.  Convective trends will be monitored.

..Cook/Guyer.. 06/17/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32390448 33640448 34460404 35320309 35370205 34610151
            33290137 31480184 30650236 30310359 30550437 32390448 

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