SPC MD 929


MD 0929 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282...

Valid 180047Z - 180245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to move eastward this evening.
Deep-layer meridional flow will keep progress slow outside of any
more organized cold pools. The strongest storms should remain within
northwest Minnesota this evening with a greater likelihood of
elevated storms farther south.

DISCUSSION...Earlier and more discrete activity has generally become
more linear as storm coverage has continued to increase across WW
282. With increasing amounts of storm interaction, discrete modes
should remain rather isolated through the rest of the evening.
Surface observations show an area of greater pressure falls within
northeastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Winds have backed
to more southeasterly in response. With this area also seeing
dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F, the greatest potential for
surface-based storms into the early evening will exist here. Storm
mode should greatly limit the tornado threat, but a brief tornado
would be possible given the locally favorable low-level hodographs.
Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and hail of 1-1.5 in. will be the
primary threats before activity weakens as it moves east. Farther
south, both deep-layer shear and low-level moisture are less. The
eastward extent of the threat is somewhat uncertain given the
downstream capping in place. However, modest low-level theta-e
advection with an increase in the low-level jet may support some
increasingly elevated, marginally severe activity this evening.

..Wendt.. 06/18/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   47969769 48719789 49269744 49319590 48589549 46799565
            46139637 46029708 46019772 46109784 47969769 

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