SPC MD 937



MD 0937 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO

MD 0937 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0937
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

Areas affected...portions of central and south-central Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191827Z - 192000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing over the higher terrain in
central/south-central Colorado. Marginally severe hail and wind are
possible with these storms, and a watch issuance is unlikely.
However, stronger storms are expected along/east of the Front
Range/Sangre de Cristo Mountains and across the High Plains this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is moving into the
Rocky Mountains with heights falling across the region. Forcing for
ascent has overspread much of the Colorado Rockies with storms
developing over the higher terrain through central Colorado. Strong
mid-level flow has resulted in long hodographs and effective bulk
shear of 40-50 knots per forecast soundings and mesoanalysis. While
surface temperatures are relatively cool with modest surface
moisture, falling temperatures aloft has resulted in ML/MUCAPE of
500+ J/kg. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates, strong shear, and
cold temperatures aloft, marginally severe hail is possible. Strong
to severe wind gusts are also possible given the strong flow aloft
and steepening low-level lapse rates. 

These storms are likely to continue moving/developing east-northeast
this afternoon with new development and possibly intensification of
the current storms likely along/east of the Front Range/Sangre de
Cristo Mountains later this afternoon. A more conducive severe storm
environment is expected east of the mountains this afternoon and
will be addressed in a future MCD.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 06/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT...

LAT...LON   39740476 38700494 37930505 37730533 37730626 37830697
            37940712 38740623 39160573 39530537 39660520 39740476 

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