SPC MD 940



MD 0940 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284… FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO…FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO…WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

MD 0940 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0940
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

Areas affected...Parts of southeast Colorado...far northeast New
Mexico...western Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284...

Valid 192257Z - 200100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 0284, with large hail being the primary threat. A couple
damaging gusts will also be possible. The main severe threat appears
to be confined a couple semi-discrete storms in the southern parts
of the watch. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch or a localized
extension will need to be considered as storms begin to move out of
WW 0284.

DISCUSSION...A couple of discrete/semi-discrete supercells have
become sustained across southeast Colorado into far northeast New
Mexico over the past couple of hours. Both KPUX dual-polarimetric
radar and MRMS data show that these storms likely contain severe
hail. MRMS depicts sustained 60+ dBZ cores at the -20C layer for the
Las Animas county CO storm, suggesting that occasional significant
severe hail may be possible. Current radar trends depict these
storms posing as the immediate, main severe threat. 8+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates and 45+ knot effective bulk shear values (per
latest Mesoanalysis) suggest that large hail remains the primary
severe threat with these storms, though a couple damaging gusts also
remain possible. In addition, high-resolution model output,
including the last few runs of the HRRR and experimental
Warn-on-Forecast guidance, depict the aforementioned storms posing
the main severe threat across southern parts of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 0284 over the next few hours.

As storm begin to approach the southeastern most bounds of the
current watch, either a new WW issuance or local extension will need
to be considered in the next hour or two.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36210475 37420473 38230435 38520345 38460225 37900190
            37150203 36600228 36390244 36210475 

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