SPC MD 963


MD 0963 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0963
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Areas affected...west-central OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293...

Valid 220313Z - 220445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293

SUMMARY...Convective inhibition will continue to increase due to a
cooling boundary layer.  West-central OK may be where the risk for
severe gusts (60-65 mph) is greatest for the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Subjective surface mesoanalysis indicates a
moist/instability axis is located from north TX into far western OK
with an instability gradient (implied via cooler surface
temperatures) arcing from southeast OK north-northwestward into the
greater OKC metro area.  The 7pm Norman, OK observed sounding showed
1300 J/kg MUCAPE and appreciable convective inhibition.  Radar
mosaic shows a well-organized squall line over northwest OK moving
southeast.  The more intense cores are preferentially developing on
the western flank of the squall line from the northeast TX Panhandle
into Ellis County, OK.  As the squall line moves southeast, a risk
for strong to locally severe gusts will continue, but the threat
appears most concentrated over west-central OK.  In the past hour,
OK Mesonet sites in northwest OK have observed gusts around 55 mph. 
Peak gusts ranging from 55-65 mph are expected for the next few
hours.  The spatial coverage of the higher gusts will probably
continue to slowly become more isolated as the thunderstorms move
into central OK during the early overnight.

..Smith.. 06/22/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   35700044 35759806 35119801 35149987 35700044 

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