SPC MD 968


MD 0968 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0968
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic...eastern Great
Lakes...Upper Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221758Z - 222030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are expected
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Damaging wind
gusts and marginally severe hail are the main severe threats. A
watch issuance is unlikely at this time, but convective trends will
be monitored closely.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is moving northeast
across the Appalachians and eastern Great Lakes and into the
Mid-Atlantic today. At the surface, a remnant MCV continues to
slowly move northeast and is currently analyzed in northeast Ohio.
Storms have developed along the leading edge of the forcing for
ascent across the eastern Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic/vicinity with
a surface pressure trough helping to focus low-level convergence and
convective initiation in western/central Pennsylvania into West
Virginia and Virginia. 

Daytime heating of a moist airmass (surface dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s F) has resulted in a maturing Cu field across the
Mid-Atlantic with some locations beginning to breach their
respective convective temperatures. MLCAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg across
the region will support deep convection with damaging wind gusts
possible given steep low-level lapse rates and water loaded
downdrafts. The lack of flow aloft will limit storm organization and
mostly outflow dominant multicellular convection is likely. However,
forcing for ascent from the upper-level shortwave trough coupled
with surface features like the MCV and surface pressure trough may
act to focus/maintain storms in a more organized manner and lead to
a localized increase of severe hail/wind potential.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 06/22/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   37277657 36907798 37797914 39297994 40708058 41818089
            42367958 42587851 42497776 42027704 41337687 40077665
            38627656 37277657 

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