SPC MD 978



MD 0978 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297… FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

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Mesoscale Discussion 0978
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Big Country into north central
Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297...

Valid 230855Z - 231030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts may continue another hour or two with a
surface cold pool approaching the Junction, Brownwood, Temple
vicinities.  Otherwise, strongest thunderstorms likely will continue
to develop into the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, and areas to the
south-southwest, through 5-6 AM CDT.  This may pose a risk for
severe wind gusts before storms weaken.

DISCUSSION...A lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic mesoscale circulation
has evolved and is now north-northeast of Abilene, and slowly
migrating east-southeastward.  This appeared to occur where
low-level moisture was maximized beneath elevated mixed-layer air,
along the remnants of a zone of stronger differential daytime
heating and boundary-layer mixing, contributing to a localized area
of CAPE on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg.  Inflow of this area
supported intensifying convection and a strengthening associated
surface cold pool, which is now surging southeast of Abilene.  This
may approach the Hill Country within the next couple of hours,
before inflow of less unstable air results in diminishing convective
intensities along it.

Meanwhile, weak low-level warm advection downstream of the MCV is
contributing to increasing convective development in bands as far
east as the Interstate 35 corridor across and south of the
Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.  This is where considerable further
upscale growth is expected to result in the evolution of the primary
cluster of storms by 10-11Z.  This activity may pose a risk for
another strong downburst and swath of strong to severe surface
gusts, before convection wanes around daybreak.

..Kerr.. 06/23/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   33319800 33499741 33239636 32649612 31539716 30819846
            30929930 31489962 32189840 33319800 

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