SPC MD 992



MD 0992 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST MT

MD 0992 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0992
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

Areas affected...northwest MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 242228Z - 242330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) and isolated severe
gusts (60-70 mph) will likely accompany several supercells as they
move east across the Glacier National Park vicinity and towards I-15
this evening.  The expected spatial extent of the severe risk lends
uncertainty whether a severe thunderstorm watch is warranted.

DISCUSSION...KMSX radar imagery shows supercells moving through Lake
and Flathead counties as of 2225z.  Surface analysis indicates
relatively more moist/unstable conditions are located in
valleys/mountains with dewpoints in the 50s degrees F vs. more mixed
40s F dewpoints farther east in the plains at Cut Bank and Great
Falls.  Ample speed shear is sampled by KMSX VAD data which supports
organized storm structures/supercells.  Expecting a hail/wind risk
for the areas west of the plains with the threat transitioning to
primarily severe gusts east of the Rocky Mountain Front.

..Smith/Edwards.. 06/24/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   47511417 48251484 48891387 48891238 48081154 47461147
            47511417 

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