SPC MD 992


MD 0992 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0992
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

Areas affected...northwest MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 242228Z - 242330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) and isolated severe
gusts (60-70 mph) will likely accompany several supercells as they
move east across the Glacier National Park vicinity and towards I-15
this evening.  The expected spatial extent of the severe risk lends
uncertainty whether a severe thunderstorm watch is warranted.

DISCUSSION...KMSX radar imagery shows supercells moving through Lake
and Flathead counties as of 2225z.  Surface analysis indicates
relatively more moist/unstable conditions are located in
valleys/mountains with dewpoints in the 50s degrees F vs. more mixed
40s F dewpoints farther east in the plains at Cut Bank and Great
Falls.  Ample speed shear is sampled by KMSX VAD data which supports
organized storm structures/supercells.  Expecting a hail/wind risk
for the areas west of the plains with the threat transitioning to
primarily severe gusts east of the Rocky Mountain Front.

..Smith/Edwards.. 06/24/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   47511417 48251484 48891387 48891238 48081154 47461147

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