SPC MD 1000


MD 1000 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1000
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

Areas affected...southeast Louisiana through southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 252043Z - 252145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Line of thunderstorms will likely persist and remain
capable of a few strong to damaging gusts next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...Line of storms from extreme southwest MS into southeast
LA is moving northeast at 35-40 kt. These storms are developing
along an outflow boundary that is surging northeast. The downstream
atmosphere is weakly capped and moderately unstable with MLCAPE from
2500-3000 J/kg. This suggests storms will persist as a forward
propagating MCS next few hours. While vertical shear is weak, VWP
data show mid-level 30-40 kt winds oriented perpendicular to the
line which will help to maintain forward propagation into the
unstable warm sector and the threat for a few locally strong to
damaging gusts should persist next couple hours. Radar and satellite
data show an outflow boundary and clouds left from earlier
convection farther north across central MS, and the squall line
should eventually merge with this boundary within another hour or
so. Storms may briefly intensify further during the boundary
mergers, followed by a decrease in organization and intensity.

..Dial/Thompson.. 06/25/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   30339008 30949050 31539095 32199043 32198933 31128898
            30218938 30339008 

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