SPC MD 1028



MD 1028 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CO…WESTERN KS…SOUTHWESTERN NE

MD 1028 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1028
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Areas affected...Eastern CO...Western KS...Southwestern NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 272301Z - 280100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread/develop east across the central
High Plains this evening. Gusty winds and some hail are expected.

DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating has once again served as the
primary instigator in convective initiation over the higher terrain
of central/southern CO. A broken line of thunderstorms now stretches
from Lincoln County - Pueblo County and this activity is spreading
east at roughly 20kt. By 01z, if this convection holds together, the
leading edge will be near the CO/KS border. Downstream across
southwestern KS, radar/satellite imagery depict an old boundary
advancing north-northeast at roughly 13kt. Boundary-layer cu field
is notably more agitated south of the wind shift where surface
temperatures have soared into the upper 90s/low 100s. As a result,
very steep low-level lapse rates are in place for potential gusty
downdrafts. Latest thinking is CO convection should hold together
and likely increase in areal coverage after sunset as LLJ
strengthens over the High Plains. LLJ is forecast to increase to
near 50kt by 06z and this is a bit stronger than Friday night. For
these reasons, an upward-evolving MCS may ultimately spread across
the central High Plains and a severe thunderstorm watch is currently
being considered.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 06/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37260156 37780301 39520250 40590145 40079927 37659986
            37260156 

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