SPC MD 1036



MD 1036 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

MD 1036 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1036
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Areas affected...parts of central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 281854Z - 282100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will form within the surface trough/front between
21 and 23Z, with large hail and maybe a couple tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Strong instability continues to develop over the
Dakotas with over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. A north-south oriented surface
trough/front extends across west-central ND, with increasing
vertical vorticity and convergence.

Visible imagery confirms ample moisture is in place with substantial
CU fields developing. As the cap is completely eroded over the next
few hours, subtle lift will cause storms to form from north to south
within the surface trough/front. Lapse rates are steep, and will
favor rapid development. While SRH is not particularly high,
substantial low-level stretching and slow storm motions within the
enhanced vertical vorticity zone may allow a broken line of storms
to produce tornadoes prior to merging. In addition, large hail is
possible with the initial strong cores.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   49130026 47080078 46560108 46380152 46420193 46730229
            47650243 48620256 49110251 49130026 

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