SPC MD 1040



MD 1040 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

MD 1040 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0433 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Areas affected...South Carolina and far southeast North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 282133Z - 282300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong storms are expected to continue through the
evening. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Storm activity has started to expand as storms move off
of the higher terrain of the Appalachians and into a warm moist
environment with temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the
low 70s, yielding MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Storms thus far have
become quickly outflow dominant, which is unsurprising given meager
effective shear around 20 knots per GSP/CAE VWP. However, despite
the meager shear, some damaging wind gusts will be possible with
collapsing cores given moderate to strong instability and DCAPE
around 1100 J/kg ahead of this activity. 

The mostly unorganized nature of the convection will likely preclude
the need for a severe thunderstorm watch, but trends will be
monitored and if a more organized severe weather threat appears
likely, a watch may be needed.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34768319 35018264 35388144 35258021 34607891 33867761
            33787794 33787841 33647875 33417903 33217910 33058002
            33188135 33888251 34768319 

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