SPC MD 1041



MD 1041 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313… FOR NORTHEAST WY…SOUTHEAST MT…WESTERN SD

MD 1041 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Areas affected...Northeast WY...Southeast MT...Western SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313...

Valid 282318Z - 290115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe will continue across the northern High
Plains this evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating appears to be the primary
instigator in strong convective development across WY into the Black
Hills region late this afternoon. Several robust updrafts, with
severe hail, are moving into western SD at roughly 30-35kt. This
activity will encounter increasingly moist/buoyant air mass over the
next hour or so, and strengthening is possible if convection is able
to ingest boundary-layer air mass characterized by upper 50s surface
dew points.

Upstream, high-based convection is gradually deepening across
central WY, well west of higher instability. Steep lapse rates
should allow this quick-moving activity to spread back into southern
portions of the watch later this evening. Strengthening is most
likely to occur farther downstream near the Black Hills.

..Darrow.. 06/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON   43570596 45900559 45920245 43580296 43570596 

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