SPC MD 1044



MD 1044 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 315… FOR SOUTHEAST MN…NORTHEAST IA…WESTERN WI

MD 1044 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Areas affected...Southeast MN...Northeast IA...Western WI

Concerning...Tornado Watch 315...

Valid 290020Z - 290215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 315 continues.

SUMMARY...Greatest short-term severe threat is shifting across
southeast MN into western Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION...Remnant MCV that originated with central Plains
convection has lifted north-northeast across western IA into
south-central MN, very near McLeod County. This feature appears to
be mostly responsible for an arcing band of scattered supercells
that is spreading northeast toward the MS River, and soon to be in
western WI. Air mass remains moist/buoyant just downstream and
latest thinking is this activity, and subsequent severe threat, may
spread a bit east of current watch border. For these reasons,
tornado watch may need to be extended east to account for this
threat.

Upstream across northwestern IA, isolated thunderstorms are
beginning to develop in the wake of the ongoing MCS. It would appear
that weak short-wave ridging may negatively affect convection across
this region; however, several CAMs solutions suggest deep convection
may actually increase over the next few hours, possibly due to
increasing LLJ. Will monitor this scenario for possible new ww.

..Darrow.. 06/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43299333 44619454 44619209 43319096 43299333 

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