SPC MD 1048


MD 1048 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Areas affected...Portions of southern MN and far west-central WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 290622Z - 290845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong/gusty winds may persist with
ongoing storms for the next few hours. Watch issuance appears
unlikely unless storms can organize into a line with a greater
damaging wind threat.

DISCUSSION...Low-level convergence and warm advection on the back
side of a well-defined MCV is supporting robust storm development in
a arcing band across parts of southern MN into far west-central WI.
Steep mid-level lapse rates along/south of this convection combined
with rich low-level moisture are resulting in a large amount of
instability, with MUCAPE in the 2000-3500 J/kg range per latest
mesoanalysis estimates. The low-level south-southwesterly flow
generally remains in the 30-35 kt range based on recent VWPs from
KMPX, with somewhat weaker winds through mid levels. This marginal
deep-layer shear profile may tend to limit overall storm
organization, with more of a cluster/multicell mode expected. Still,
given the large reservoir of buoyancy, isolated hail and perhaps
strong/gusty downdrafts winds may occur. A brief tornado cannot be
entirely ruled out either given a veering/strengthening wind profile
in the low levels, but static stability of the boundary layer should
tend to limit the tornado threat.

There may be a chance for storms to congeal into a more organized
bowing line with a potentially greater damaging wind threat later
this morning per some short-term model guidance. But, the low-level
jet is forecast to gradually weaken after 09-10Z, which suggests a
gradual weakening trend should occur. Watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time, with greater signs of storm organization
being needed for higher watch probabilities.

..Gleason/Grams.. 06/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   45089531 44979435 45089362 45409281 45349197 45219133
            44589161 44169247 44079362 44179467 44589541 45029560

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