SPC MD 1049


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Mesoscale Discussion 1049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Areas affected...Southern/central Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291828Z - 292000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop in a very unstable airmass
this afternoon. Weak shear should limit storm organization. A few
strong/damaging microbursts and marginally severe hail are possible.
No WW is expected.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed near and south of an
outflow boundary across southern WI. A very unstable airmass is in
place with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE on objective mesoanalysis.
Deep-layer flow is quite weak and will keep convection relatively
unorganized. The airmass in the wake of the MCV, and north of the
current activity, is showing signs of increasing destabilization.
Shear in this region is stronger given the remnant 30-40 kt flow
aloft. With the MCV continuing to pull away to the north, the
favorable overlap of buoyancy and shear is expected to be minimal
this far south. Given the instability, a few strong/damaging
microbursts are possible as well as marginally severe hail. Lack of
convective organization is expected to preclude WW issuance.

..Wendt/Hart.. 06/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   43429109 43789093 44498972 44328832 43538786 42878829
            42638940 42739020 43039091 43429109 

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