SPC MD 1051



MD 1051 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS

MD 1051 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Areas affected...West Texas into Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 292043Z - 292245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the dryline across western Texas. Very large
buoyancy and steep lapse rates will foster a threat for large hail
and severe wind gusts. With weak shear and a lack of upper-level
support, storms will diminish after sunset. A WW is not currently
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Storms have initiated near Ft. Stockton and Sweetwater
along the dryline. As they move east, they will encounter mid to
upper 60s dewpoints which has promoted 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and
should intensify. While scattered storm coverage is expected, weak
effective shear of 20-30 kts will keep storm organization minimal.
Furthermore, without upper-level support, storms are likely to
decrease in intensity shortly after sunset as they encounter
increasing MLCIN. Multicells and perhaps marginal supercells will be
capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Limited storm
organization and a spatially and temporally confined threat reduces
confidence in the need for a WW.

..Wendt/Hart.. 06/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   30810288 32770083 33759992 33949868 32779845 30709977
            29820151 29880278 30070328 30360335 30810288 

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