SPC MD 1052


MD 1052 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Areas affected...northeast Wyoming...eastern Montana...western South
and North Dakota,

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 292044Z - 292245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the northern High Plains by 22Z. Trends will continue
to be monitored for a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon a warm front extends from a surface
low in far eastern MT through southwestern ND. A cold front extends
southward from the low through southeast MT into southwest SD. The
atmosphere in this region has become moderately to strongly unstable
with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s F.
Further moist advection is expected into early evening beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates supporting 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Visible
imagery shows cumulus increasing near and east of triple point along
the warm front, with additional towering cumulus over the black
hills as well as the higher terrain of northeast WY. RAP analysis
also show a weak vorticity maximum lifting northward through eastern
WY. Though timing is somewhat uncertain, orographic forcing as well
as convergence in vicinity of the triple point and warm front should
result in thunderstorm initiation by 22Z. Vertical wind profiles
with 30-40 kt effective bulk shear will support both multicell and
some supercell structures with damaging wind and large hail the main
threats. A window will exist for a couple of tornadoes, mainly near
the warm front as low-level shear undergoes some increase during the
early evening.

..Dial/Hart.. 06/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   44370480 46100528 47160490 48390375 48650236 47730175
            45650279 43950310 43560378 44370480 

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