SPC MD 1058



MD 1058 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

MD 1058 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Areas affected...northern Georgia through western South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 301854Z - 302100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for a few
strong to damaging wind gusts as they move through northern Georgia
and into western South Carolina this afternoon. A WW is not
anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon a squall line extends across
southeast TN into northwest GA moving east southeast at 25 to 30 kt.
Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the downstream boundary layer
continues to destabilize as temperatures warm to the low 90s F
supporting 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE. Storms are embedded within modest
15-20 kt west northwesterly deep layer flow. Despite weak forcing
aloft in the presence of a shortwave ridge, storm-scale forcing with
convergence along the cold pool should promote a forward propagating
MCS through the destabilizing and weakly capped boundary layer next
several hours. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support a few
strong to locally damaging gusts.

..Dial/Hart.. 06/30/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   34548469 35078415 34848270 34438227 33918253 33668332
            34008481 34548469 

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