SPC MD 1059



MD 1059 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

MD 1059 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1059
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Areas affected...West Texas into southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 302010Z - 302215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered storms are again expected
along the dryline. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are
possible before activity diminishes after sunset. No WW is expected
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Similar to yesterday, a strong dryline circulation is
expected to help initiate widely scattered to scattered storms this
afternoon from near the Big Bend to potentially as far north as
southwest Oklahoma. Current visible satellite shows deepening
cumulus within the Davis Mountains as well as near Sweetwater, TX.
Storms will intensify as they move into richer moisture to the east.
Though mid-level winds appear to be somewhat weaker than yesterday,
25-30 kts of effective shear as well as steep low/mid-level lapse
rates will foster a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind
gusts. As these storms are strongly diurnally driven, intensity
should diminish after sunset. Given the overall lack of storm
organization, the threat is expected to remain marginal. No WW is
expected this afternoon.

..Wendt/Hart.. 06/30/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   29590271 30080289 32380100 33060012 33559967 34399901
            34569865 34039802 32189880 30840000 29690150 29590271 

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