SPC MD 1060


MD 1060 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Areas affected...North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 302159Z - 010000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Some severe threat will be noted with thunderstorms across
North Dakota this evening; however, convection may struggle at
times. Will continue to monitor for possible ww.

DISCUSSION...Complex convective scenario is underway across the
northern Plains this evening. Scattered convection has been ongoing
within a zone of warm advection along/north of the advancing warm
front. This activity has struggled to organize as updrafts appear to
be impeded by poor lapse rates in the lowest 3km (warm 700mb
temperatures). Supporting this, satellite imagery depicts anvils
that are not replenishing rapidly, and/or venting strongly aloft.
Even so, focused LLJ into ND, and approaching short-wave trough,
suggest this area will need to be monitored for possible ww. Until
thermodynamic profiles adjust, and the influential cap is removed,
convection may not be as robust as some of the objective analysis
might otherwise suggest.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 06/30/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   47870076 48469940 48349781 47499692 46839768 46779967
            47030115 47870076 

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