SPC MD 1062



MD 1062 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL PLAINS

MD 1062 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1062
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Areas affected...Central Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 302248Z - 010015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected along a
cold front as it sweeps across the central Plains this evening.
Hail/wind are the main threats.

DISCUSSION...Strong mid-level short-wave trough is ejecting across
the central High Plains early this evening. Latest satellite imagery
suggests the leading edge of stronger forcing arcs from the NE
Panhandle - eastern CO. Forcing, in association with this feature,
will approach the cold front oriented N-S across the central Plains
over the next few hours. Strong boundary-layer heating has developed
across KS into south-central NE; however, very warm 700mb
temperatures have effectively suppressed deep convection. Over the
next several hours, significant 700mb cold-air advection will spread
north of I-80 ahead of the ejecting short wave. This should result
in more favorable thermodynamic profiles for deep convection. Over
the last hour or so, cu field has become a bit more agitated along
the front over north-central NE, with even a few showers now evident
over western Holt County. Current thinking is this activity will
gradually deepen and scattered thunderstorms are expected. Wind/hail
are the primary threats.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 06/30/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40340009 42319964 43629882 43119748 40329868 40340009 

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