SPC MD 1062


MD 1062 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1062
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Areas affected...Central Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 302248Z - 010015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected along a
cold front as it sweeps across the central Plains this evening.
Hail/wind are the main threats.

DISCUSSION...Strong mid-level short-wave trough is ejecting across
the central High Plains early this evening. Latest satellite imagery
suggests the leading edge of stronger forcing arcs from the NE
Panhandle - eastern CO. Forcing, in association with this feature,
will approach the cold front oriented N-S across the central Plains
over the next few hours. Strong boundary-layer heating has developed
across KS into south-central NE; however, very warm 700mb
temperatures have effectively suppressed deep convection. Over the
next several hours, significant 700mb cold-air advection will spread
north of I-80 ahead of the ejecting short wave. This should result
in more favorable thermodynamic profiles for deep convection. Over
the last hour or so, cu field has become a bit more agitated along
the front over north-central NE, with even a few showers now evident
over western Holt County. Current thinking is this activity will
gradually deepen and scattered thunderstorms are expected. Wind/hail
are the primary threats.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 06/30/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   40340009 42319964 43629882 43119748 40329868 40340009 

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