SPC MD 1089


MD 1089 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

Areas affected...Central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 030215Z - 030315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...An MCS propagating into central KS should continue to
support severe wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours. A watch will be
issued soon to address this threat.

DISCUSSION...An MCS moving across northern KS continues to produce
severe winds gusts, including along its southern flank with 60-70
mph winds recently reported. These wind reports support recent radar
trends which show the southern portion of the line beginning to
accelerate to the east/southeast. New convection developing ahead of
this southeastward surge suggests that conditions remain favorable
for continued propagation. This is supported by recent RAP
mesoanalysis which shows Low-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE in this region, suggesting that the severe
wind threat should continue for the next one to two hours. As such,
a watch is likely to cover this wind threat.

..Moore/Thompson.. 07/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39409991 39639912 39479752 38959706 38349688 38069759
            38029820 38389937 38709979 39409991 

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