SPC MD 1155



MD 1155 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA…PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES

MD 1155 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Areas affected...much of central and eastern Iowa...parts of
surrounding states

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 091524Z - 091800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage this afternoon ahead of
an MCV, and areas of damaging wind gusts and marginal hail will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Satellite shows a well-defined MCV over IA with strong
heating to the east/northeast. While the air over southwest IA and
western MO has been stabilized by the nocturnal MCS, a good fetch of
high theta-e air exists downstream from eastern MO and IL curling
northwestward into IA and southern WI.

Shear associated with the MCV may increase somewhat throughout the
day, though low-level shear for any tornado threat is currently
weak, and 0-1 SRH may not even reach 100 m2/s2. At this time, it
appears that damaging winds may become the primary concern later
today as storms develop in the instability axis and near/ahead of
the low. Relatively cool temperatures aloft north/east of the MCV
may also favor hail in the strongest cores.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40639313 41249332 41769358 42019415 42239433 42719450
            43179412 43659359 43969263 43929142 43669082 42939033
            42329023 41609034 41009080 40529147 40399180 40379252
            40409282 40639313 

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