SPC MD 1156



MD 1156 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS…FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA

MD 1156 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Areas affected...much of Arkansas...far eastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 091546Z - 091745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts remain possible mainly
through early afternoon from far eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. It
is unclear whether severe potential will necessitate a watch into
central Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...A small MCS continues to push southeastward into
northwest AR, with isolated gusts near severe limits measured. The
air mass is moist and unstable downstream, though the 12Z LZK
sounding shows more of a warm layer above 700 mb compared to SGF.
Shear will remain weak across the area, and this system will remain
outflow-driven.

Model consensus is for storms to remain strong for 2-3 hours, with a
downward trend presumably as the cold pool weakens. Other cells may
develop ahead of the MCS as well, and localized strong wind gusts or
marginal hail cannot be ruled out with that activity. Watch
potential will likely depend on MCS trends over the next 1-2 hours.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   36379370 36229263 35809180 35269145 34529146 33829192
            33519294 33579392 33809452 34359498 34959518 35309516
            35619462 35859422 36139391 36379370 

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