SPC MD 1220



MD 1220 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EXTREME NORTHERN IOWA…SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA…AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN

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Mesoscale Discussion 1220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Areas affected...extreme northern Iowa...southeast Minnesota...and
northwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 141258Z - 141430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will pose a risk for isolated marginally severe
hail this morning as they move through northern Iowa, southeast
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe threat does not appear to
warrant a severe thunderstorm watch at this time.

DISCUSSION...Storms have recently undergone some increase in
intensity this morning from northern IA through southeast MN and
western WI. These storms are elevated above a stable surface layer,
and are developing in association with an MCV and theta-e advection
along the low-level jet in a narrow corridor just ahead of a cold
front. The atmosphere is moderately unstable with 1000-2000 J/kg
MUCAPE with modest mid-level lapse rates. The stronger vertical
shear profiles remain just west of this region, and some increase is
expected through the morning. Mostly multicells are expected
initially, but some mid-level updraft rotation is possible in some
of the cells.

..Dial/Thompson.. 07/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43289423 43889361 45269257 45309156 44379084 43429201
            43079358 43289423 

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