SPC MD 1348


MD 1348 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1348
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

Areas affected...Portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271714Z - 271845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across eastern Illinois into eastern Ohio
may pose a threat for a few damaging wind gusts this afternoon and
evening. A weather watch is unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough moving across the upper Midwest and
southern Canada is forecast to continue eastward this afternoon and
evening. Storm development has already taken place along and east of
the associated surface cold front in central Illinois. Seasonably
warm and moist surface conditions, temperatures and dewpoints in the
80s and 70s F respectively, are supporting between 1000-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE, despite the relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Continued
heating and background lift from the approaching trough are expected
to support an increase in storm coverage through this afternoon.
Vertical shear is weak, at only 20-25 kt for much of the region.
Storm organization is forecast to be minimal, and primarily
multi-cellular. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main threat
with the convective complex as the cold pool spreads to the east. 

Additional storms are expected to develop across eastern and central
Ohio. These storms are expected to remain more scattered in
coverage, and overall less organized than the complex moving in from
the west. While shear is weak, (below 20kt) DCAPE of 1000-1400 J/kg
will support an occasional strong convective gusts.  

Given the broad nature of the threat area and lack of greater storm
organization/focus, any severe threat that materializes will likely
remain isolated. A weather watch is unlikely at this time.

..Lyons/Bunting.. 07/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   40498268 39808312 38938454 38658562 38248702 37888948
            38269018 38628995 39268911 40018893 41398620 41538476
            41218321 40808254 40498268 

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