SPC MD 1349



MD 1349 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY/NH/VT INTO ME

MD 1349 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

Areas affected...Portions of northern NY/NH/VT into ME

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 272047Z - 272315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind
gusts will be possible into this evening. Watch issuance is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...At 2045Z, thunderstorms are ongoing across southern
Quebec into portions of northern New England. While clouds have
limited destabilization across central/northern ME, greater heating
across northern NY into portions of VT/NH has allowed MLCAPE to rise
into the 750-1500 J/kg range per recent mesoanalyses. Thunderstorm
coverage may increase over the next 1-2 hours, in advance of a weak
shortwave trough moving across southern Quebec, and along and ahead
of a diffuse surface boundary near the international border.
Effective shear of 35-45 kt may allow for some storm organization,
though weak midlevel lapse rates will generally tend to limit
updraft intensity. A few multicells/weak supercells and/or small
bowing segments may eventually evolve with time, resulting in a
threat of locally damaging wind. The coverage and magnitude of the
threat is expected to remain rather limited, so watch issuance is
considered unlikely at this time.

..Dean/Bunting.. 07/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON   44207444 44327519 44487559 44617577 44807580 45017520
            45167431 45417268 45387141 45807026 46096963 46106896
            45766794 45116729 44646793 44386972 44047160 44197434
            44207444 

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