SPC MD 1350



MD 1350 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA

MD 1350 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1350
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020

Areas affected...Chesapeake Bay region southwestward to northern
North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 281919Z - 282115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convective coverage is expected over
the next 1 to 2 hours, with stronger storms capable of producing
strong/gusty winds.   Some tree damage may occur with a few of the
more sustained updrafts.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a weak/diffuse surface
boundary crossing central Virginia at this time, with diurnal
heating of the moist near-frontal boundary layer (around 70
dewpoints) now pushing mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 J/kg
(Chesapeake Bay area) to 2000 J/kg (north-central North
Carolina/south-central Virginia) range.

A gradual increase in convection is occurring across this area,
particularly near the Danville Virginia/state border area -- as a
weak/subtle vort max evident in WV imagery crosses the southwestern
Virginia vicinity.  While flow aloft is rather weak across this
region (west-northwesterly at 15 to 20 kt), upscale growth of the
cluster into a more linear band could locally increase gusty wind
potential.

Farther north, slightly weaker instability and more isolated
convective development is indicated.  However, with slightly faster
flow aloft (20 to 30 kt westerlies per the morning IAD RAOB and the
latest LWX WSR-88D VWP), locally strong wind gusts will become more
likely over the next couple of hours as storms strengthen in
conjunction with peak heating/destabilization.  

At this time, WW issuance is not expected, due to marginal risk and
isolated storm coverage.  However, any signs of potential for
greater coverage of the more vigorous convection could warrant WW
consideration.

..Goss/Bunting.. 07/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   39417585 39007571 38177616 37297718 36257914 35938091
            36428119 36868013 37707968 38287895 38947814 39567653
            39417585 

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