SPC MD 1352


MD 1352 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1352
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

Areas affected...Far eastern CO into western KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 291928Z - 292100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are possible later this
afternoon into the evening. Large hail and locally severe wind gusts
will be the primary hazards. Watch issuance is possible by 21Z.

DISCUSSION...At 1915Z, cumulus is increasing across portions of
east-central and southeast CO, and also in the vicinity of a weak
frontal boundary across northwest KS. Strong heating and steep
midlevel lapse rates have allowed for moderate destabilization, with
MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg noted per recent mesoanalyses. Continued
heating and weakening of MLCINH should allow for widely scattered
thunderstorm development later this afternoon across this region.
Effective shear of 30-40 kt will favor some organization, including
the potential for a supercell or two, though backing of upper-level
flow may result in somewhat messy storm structures and tendency for
more of a cluster mode. 

Large hail and localized downburst winds will the the primary
initial hazards. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as
convection spreads southeastward, at which point the main threat
would transition to primarily damaging wind. Watch issuance is
possible by 21Z for portions of this region.

..Dean/Goss.. 07/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   37070281 38750288 39520280 39840259 39920164 39960080
            39940049 39900019 39200009 38180006 37690019 37250044
            37060110 37030212 37050269 37070281 

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