SPC MD 1357



MD 1357 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN TEXAS AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS

MD 1357 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

Areas affected...central/southern Oklahoma and adjacent areas of
western Texas and the Texas South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 302031Z - 302230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected to expand in coverage
across the MD area over the next few hours.  A WW issuance may
eventually be needed for an emerging hail/wind threat with this
activity.

DISCUSSION...A few elevated thunderstorms have deepened over the
past half hour or so over west-central Oklahoma, while a deepening
cumulus field was evident in satellite imagery along and ahead of a
front that bisects Oklahoma from northeast to southwest.  Strong
surface-based instability (90s F surface temperatures and 60s-70s F
dewpoints contributing to 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE) was located along
and ahead of the front, while steep mid-level lapse rates and weak
impulse(s) around the base of a mid-level trough centered over
Kansas was likely forcing convection in west-central Oklahoma.  As
these storms approach the open warm sector and continued surface
heating weakens mid-level inhibition noted in forecast soundings,
the expectation is that convective coverage will expand, with ~40
knots of deep shear supporting loosely organized clusters of storms
through the evening.  Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the
primary threats with this activity, with the main
uncertainty/limiting factor for a potential Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance being convective coverage before sunset.  Convective
trends are being monitored across the discussion area.

..Cook/Goss.. 07/30/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35619657 35619777 35419916 34950043 34310128 33870156
            33490130 33320032 33519833 34029646 34379568 34909539
            35389558 35619657 

Read more



Source link

Editor
  • Editor
  • Website is owned by STL.News, LLC, but hosted, designed and maintained by WebTech Group (WTG). WTG is a St. Louis based web designed firm offering digital marketing services and news sites. We created RSSWX.News to help the major search engines easily find news direct from the source, which is the National Weather Service.