SPC MD 1358



MD 1358 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE ARKLATEX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS

MD 1358 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

Areas affected...the ArkLaTex northeastward through central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 302041Z - 302245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convection entering western Arkansas may gradually expand
in coverage and require issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
later this afternoon.  Convective trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level convection initially over eastern Oklahoma
has deepened and become more surface-based this afternoon while
making eastward progress toward the discussion area.  The downstream
airmass is weakly capped and characterized by strong instability
(3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE) and modest deep shear (around 30-40 knots). 
The deep shear may support loose organization into a cluster or line
pending evolution of the ongoing cluster in western Arkansas and
maturity of any resultant cold pool.  CAMs hint at evolution of a
cluster that will forward-propagate through the discussion area -
perhaps through central and southern Arkansas over the next couple
hours or so.  Given the strongly buoyant downstream environment,
strong wind gusts and isolated hail are the main threats with any
activity that can evolve.  Pending convective trends (particularly
extent of storm coverage), a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed
later this afternoon.

..Cook/Goss.. 07/30/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   35569183 35439289 34839418 34279489 33559524 32899492
            32669415 32659275 33109165 33739121 34269098 34899105
            35179125 35569183 

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