SPC MD 1365



MD 1365 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA

MD 1365 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1365
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Areas affected...central and northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 311829Z - 312000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing in a highly unstable
environment. Atmospheric conditions will support the occasional
strong downburst capable of producing isolated wind/tree damage.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop on the far southern
periphery of a mesoscale convective vortex across Tennessee. These
thunderstorms are developing within a strongly unstable environment
with just enough deep-layer flow to support updraft longevity. 

Given high tropospheric moisture content, strong instability, and
deep-layer shear around 20 knots, a few downbursts cannot be ruled
out with the strongest thunderstorm cores. The lack of stronger
deep-layer shear should preclude a more widespread, organized severe
risk and therefore a watch is not currently anticipated. Trends will
continue to be monitored.

..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/31/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   33678804 34978689 34838505 33408589 33678804 

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