SPC MD 1366


MD 1366 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 311953Z - 312200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Increase in coverage of severe storms expected in the next
1-2 hours, watch possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional satellite shows a few focused areas of
boundary layer cumulus development, one over southern portions of
the Sangre De Cristo Mountains and another along the Sacramento
Range in south-central New Mexico. These areas of development are
occurring within an environment characterized by modest instability
(MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg) and moderate effective bulk shear (35-45
kt). In addition, steep low- and mid-level lapse rates (approaching
9 C/km) are present across the region.

With continued diabatic heating, the ongoing convective development
is expected to result in more numerous coverage of storms this
afternoon. The aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter combination will
help to organize storms into perhaps a few supercells capable of
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Coverage of storms is generally
expected to increase from north to south over the area. Should these
convective trends unfold, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed
for parts of the region by late afternoon.

..Karstens/Bunting.. 07/31/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   32500546 33720584 35680606 36350577 36630525 36500464
            36180404 35400372 32920424 32340465 32500546 

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