SPC MD 1368



MD 1368 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407… FOR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI…NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA

MD 1368 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi...North-central Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407...

Valid 312223Z - 010030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind damage threat may develop across parts of
north-central Mississippi over the next couple of hours. Weather
watch issuance will need to be considered if trends warrant.

DISCUSSION...The latest volumetric radar imagery shows a short
bowing line segment just to the west of Columbus, Mississippi. This
line is located in a very moist airmass with surface dewpoints in
its patch generally in the mid 70s F. This is contributing to
moderate instability with the RAP analyzing a pocket of MLCAPE as
great as 2500 to 3000 J/kg. Although deep-layer shear is relatively
weak across north-central Alabama, low-level lapse rates are
estimated to be near 7.5 C/Km. The steep lapse rates in the lowest 3
Km above ground level combined with the potential for cold pool
development means that weather watch issuance will need to be
considered for parts of central and northern Alabama over the next
hour.

..Broyles/Hart.. 07/31/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33238905 32888885 32888810 33138686 33358607 33668573
            34028574 34168584 34318618 34328690 34188786 33978885
            33578906 33238905 

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