SPC MD 1369


MD 1369 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1369
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Areas affected...Eastern Tennessee...Western North
Carolina...Southwestern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 312343Z - 010215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind damage threat will be possible over the
next couple of hours as storms move from far eastern Tennessee into
western North Carolina and southwestern Virginia. The threat should
be too localized, and the longevity of the severe threat too
uncertain for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest volumetric radar imagery shows a line of
strong to severe thunderstorms located in far eastern Tennessee to
the west of Johnson City and Kingsport. The line is located in a
moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the southern Appalachians
mostly in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. In response, moderate
instability is analyzed by the RAP from far eastern Tennessee into
western North Carolina. Although the line of storms will be moving
into slightly less instability over the next hour, it should
encounter stronger instability in northwestern North Carolina and
southwestern Virginia. If the line can remain intact and obtain
access to the stronger instability further to the east, then the
wind damage threat could persist for a couple more hours.

..Broyles/Hart.. 07/31/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   35757974 35538238 35648285 35978308 36398301 36798270
            36978159 36877971 35757974 

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