SPC MD 1372



MD 1372 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY…MUCH OF OHIO…MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA…AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA

MD 1372 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1372
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky...much of Ohio...much of West
Virginia...and far southwestern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 011819Z - 011915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Deepening convection will pose a risk for damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two through the afternoon.  A WW issuance
is being considered.

DISCUSSION...Convection across eastern Kentucky has gradually
deepened and intensified over the past hour, partially in response
to lift/ascent associated with a mid-level low over Illinois.  These
storms are in a moderately buoyant airmass (1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE),
with deep shear of around 25-35 knots marginally favoring loose
organization.  Weak low-level flow also favors outflow dominant
storms, though some turning/veering with height may support
occasional updraft rotation in persistent, cellular convection.  An
east-to-west oriented warm front located from near DAY to near MRB
may also aid in updraft rotation with cells that can favorably
interact.  The overall scenario suggests potential for occasional
wind damage and perhaps a tornado or two with stronger convection. 
The nature of the threat may become substantial enough to require a
WW issuance over the next couple of hours.  Convective trends are
being monitored.

..Cook/Bunting.. 08/01/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...

LAT...LON   39458500 40218454 40728381 40868285 40888176 40888085
            40508010 39957967 39237975 38558035 37798158 37218309
            37098420 37848514 38708534 39458500 

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