SPC MD 1373



MD 1373 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA…EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA…MUCH OF MARYLAND…AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

MD 1373 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020

Areas affected...northern Virginia...eastern West Virginia...much of
Maryland...and the District of Columbia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 012000Z - 012200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convection over eastern West Virginia will gradually
spread eastward, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps
an isolated tornado.  A WW may eventually be needed pending
convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has developed across portions of
eastern West Virginia over the past hour or so, with one cell
showing signs of broad/weak rotation aloft.  The airmass supporting
these storms has become moderately unstable, with 70s F dewpoints
and 80s F surface temperatures resulting in 2000-2500 J/kg along and
south of a warm front located from PIT to WAL.  The cells are also
in a weakly forced synoptic environment, with a mid-level trough
located well west of the region. Nevertheless, weak inhibition and
buoyancy in tandem with weak surface confluence has fostered initial
development in eastern West Virginia.  This regime should continue
through the evening, with 30-40 knots of deep shear fostering
organization.  Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with
this activity, although a tornado cannot be ruled out given favored
cellular storm mode and potential for updraft interactions with the
aforementioned warm front.  Convective trends are being monitored,
and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed especially if a
greater concentration of convection can be achieved through
nightfall.

..Cook/Bunting.. 08/01/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   39967756 39947810 39647873 39317904 38927938 38467956
            38107918 38037820 38257719 38487656 38897629 39487637
            39807711 39967756 

Read more



Source link

Editor
  • Editor
  • Website is owned by STL.News, LLC, but hosted, designed and maintained by WebTech Group (WTG). WTG is a St. Louis based web designed firm offering digital marketing services and news sites. We created RSSWX.News to help the major search engines easily find news direct from the source, which is the National Weather Service.